Denis Rancourt
Denis G. Rancourt, Marine Baudin, Jérémie Mercier
Abstract
We analyzed all-cause mortality by week (ACM/w) for Canada, and for the Canadian provinces, and by age group and sex, from January 2010 through March 2021; in comparison with data for other countries and their regions or counties.
We find that there is no extraordinary surge in yearly or seasonal mortality in Canada, which can be ascribed to a COVID-19 pandemic; and that several prominent features in the ACM/w in the COVID-19 period exhibit anomalous province-to-province heterogeneity that is irreconcilable with the known behaviour of epidemics of viral respiratory diseases (VRDs). We conclude that a pandemic did not occur.
In addition, our analysis of the ACM/w, by province, age and sex, allows us to highlight anomalies, occurring during the COVID-19 period, which provide strong evidence that:
• Among the most elderly (85+ years), many died from the immediate response to the pandemic that was announced by the WHO on 11 March 2020.
• Predominantly young males (0-44 years, and also 45-64 years) probably indirectly died from the sustained pandemic response, in the summer months of 2020, and into the fall and winter, starting in May 2020, especially in Alberta, significantly in Ontario and British Columbia, whereas not in Quebec.
Our study provides constraints on the mechanisms at play in VRD epidemics.
Index
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Data
3. Results / Interpretation
3.1 No detectable pandemic increase in the yearly and
seasonal mortality
3.2 Inter-jurisdictional uniformity of pre-COVID-period features
in all-cause mortality by time, 2010-2019
3.3 Inter-jurisdictional variations of COVID-period features in
all-cause mortality by time
3.4 Analysis of ACM/w by age group and by sex
4. Discussion
4.1 Regarding pandemics
4.2 Regarding the “C”-feature (“covid-peak”) in ACM by time
4.3 Regarding the summer-2020 level and the “2”-feature
(“2nd wave”) in ACM by time
4.4 Regarding age group specifics in ACM by time
4.5 Regarding causes of response-induced deaths
4.6 Would there have been fewer deaths?
5. Concluding comments: Missing self-evaluation
References
Appendix: ACM/w normalized by population, and comparisons
