2020-06-02 ::: All-cause mortality during COVID-19 - No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response
Summary / Abstract
The latest data of all-cause mortality by week does not show a winter-burden mortality that is statistically larger than for past winters. There was no plague. However, a sharp “COVID peak” is present in the data, for several jurisdictions in Europe and the USA.
This all-cause-mortality “COVID peak” has unique characteristics:
- Its sharpness, with a full-width at half-maximum of only approximately 4 weeks;
- Its lateness in the infectious-season cycle, surging after week-11 of 2020, which is unprecedented for any large sharp-peak feature;
- The synchronicity of the onset of its surge, across continents, and immediately following the WHO declaration of the pandemic; and
- Its USA state-to-state absence or presence for the same viral ecology on the same territory, being correlated with nursing home events and government actions rather than any known viral strain discernment.
These “COVID peak” characteristics, and a review of the epidemiological history, and of relevant knowledge about viral respiratory diseases, lead me to postulate that the “COVID peak” results from an accelerated mass homicide of immune-vulnerable individuals, and individuals made more immune-vulnerable, by government and institutional actions, rather than being an epidemiological signature of a novel virus, irrespective of the degree to which the virus is novel from the perspective of viral speciation.
The paper is organized into the following sections:
- Cause-of-death-attribution data is intrinsically unreliable
- Year-to-year winter-burden mortality in mid-latitude nations is robustly regular
- Why is the winter-burden pattern of mortality so regular and persistent?
- A simple model of viral respiratory disease de facto virulence
- All-cause mortality analysis of COVID-19
- Interpreting the all-cause mortality “COVID peak”
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